The evolution of FIDE ratings, the recent 2024 update, and insights into the Elo system.
September 1, 2024
The first list of FIDE ratings was officially published in July 1971. The initial list featured only 592 players, with Bobby Fischer at the top. Initially focused on the elite, the list has evolved substantially, expanding to include a broader range of players. Today, it encompasses nearly half a million chess players worldwide.
Below, you can view an animation illustrating the number of players in different rating ranges over time.
For a more detailed examination, check out the YouTube video.
The rating pool experienced notable deflation, particularly following the pandemic, as many younger players developed their chess skills without participating in traditional tournaments. This shift contributed to the overall deflation of the rating pool.
In December 2023, the FIDE Council agreed on an adjustment to the rating system. The most notable change was a one-time increase of up to 400 points for players rated below 2000. The adjustment applied the formula “0.4 x (2000 - rating)” to players below 2000, resulting in a 400-point increase for those at 1000, with the increment decreasing as ratings approached 2000. Additionally, the rating floor was raised to 1400 points. Although the change sparked controversy, it was ultimately enacted in March 2024.
ChessMonitor offers a FIDE rating estimate that translates your online game ratings into an estimate comparable to FIDE Standard ratings. Using a linear regression model, we’ve developed a method that predicts FIDE ratings with a 95% confidence interval of ±118 points. For more details on how the model works and its accuracy, check out this post.
We have now incorporated the recent FIDE rating changes into our estimates and will continue to monitor their impact on FIDE ratings. We will likely recreate the linear regression model at some point in the future. For now, we believe it’s the best way to get a FIDE rating estimate based on your online games.
The Elo system, invented by Professor Arpad Elo (Elo is not an acronym), is a rating method initially designed for chess but now widely used in other sports, including tennis, hockey, and even the FIFA World Rankings for football. Before the first official Elo list was published in July 1971, Professor Elo had already compiled several unofficial lists. One of the earliest, published in June 1967 for the United States Chess Federation (USCF), included just 95 players.
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